NCRM videos

Can we trust the polls? Reflections on the 2015 Election Poll miss

Patrick Sturgis, Nick Moon, Jouni Kuha, Will Jennings

06-07-2016

The pre-election polls significantly under-estimated the size of the Conservative lead over Labor at the 2015 General Election, with nearly all the final polls calling the ‘horse race’ as a dead heat. The failure to predict the Conservative majority has led many commentators to question the value and robustness of polling methodology, with some even calling for polls to be banned in the final weeks preceding an election.