Expert Elicitation Techniques for Social Scientists (bookings closed)
|NCRM, University of Southampton|
Professor John Gosling and Dr Jose Pina-Sanchez
06/12/2018 - 07/12/2018
Leeds Institute for Data Analytics, Level 11, Worsley Building, Clarendon Way, Leeds
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Increasingly decision makers are interested in knowing about the uncertainty in events that will impact their decisions. Traditional quantitative uncertainty modelling relies on vast amounts of data or assumptions to characterise the uncertainty reliably. Where data is lacking, an expert’s gut judgement is sometimes used, but questions of reliability and transparency of such judgements can always be raised.
In the context of uncertainty modelling, expert knowledge elicitation is the process of translating someone’s judgements about some uncertain quantities into something useful. Elicitation can help us to take stock of the uncertainty about quantities of interest without the cost of data collection whilst using processes that are transparent and reproducible. In this short course, we will introduce the principles of expert knowledge elicitation, demonstrate its use in probabilistic uncertainty modelling and focus on an establish elicitation protocol: the Sheffield method.
The course covers:
By the end of the course participants will:
This course is mainly lecture-based, including two sessions using computers. During those sessions, we will use R, but no previous knowledge of the software or statistical programming is required.
Participants are encouraged to think of potential applications of expert elicitation techniques in their areas of research as part of their preparation for the course.
Entry (no or almost no prior knowledge)
The fee per teaching day is:
R, Expert elicitation , , Expert recruitment , , Decision making under uncertainty , , Uncertainty analysis , , Subjective judgements
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