The Inquiry into the Failure of the 2015 Pre-election Polls: Findings and Preliminary Conclusions (join a waiting list)

Course Code

HUB-03-15/16-A-E

Organised by

NCRM

Presenter

Professor Patrick Sturgis

Date

19/01/2016

Venue

12 Errol Street, London

Map

View in Google Maps  (EC1Y 8LX)

Contact

Eva Nedbalova, eva.nedbalova@soton.ac.uk,02380598199

Description

The pre-election polls significantly under-estimated the size of the Conservative lead over Labour at the 2015 General Election, with nearly all the final polls calling the ‘horse race’ as a dead heat. The failure to predict the Conservative lead in the vote share has led many commentators to question the value and robustness of polling methodology, with some prominent figures even calling for polls to be banned in the final weeks preceding an election. In response to these events, the British Polling Council and the Market Research Society instigated an independent inquiry into the causes of the discrepancy between the final polls and the election result, chaired by Professor Patrick Sturgis of the University of Southampton. In this half day event at the Royal Statistical Society, the polling inquiry panel will present their findings and preliminary conclusions about the factors which led to the polling miss.

Agenda:
13.00 Registration opens (coffee/tea)
14.00 Welcome and overview of the Inquiry, Patrick Sturgis, University of Southampton
14.15 Presentation of preliminary findings by the inquiry team
15.15 Q&A from the floor
16.00 Close

Level

Entry (no or almost no prior knowledge)

Cost

Places at this event are free but registration is required. The event is now fully booked. Please join the waiting list https://goo.gl/3sp8FV

Website and registration

Region

Greater London

Keywords

Data Collection, Qualitative Data Handling and Data Analysis, Polling inquiry

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