Predicting and Understanding the 2015 General Election (join a waiting list)
Date:
12/02/2015
Organised by:
A Joint event by NCRM and the British Election Study
Presenter:
Professor Jane Green, British Election Study, University of Manchester.
Level:
Entry (no or almost no prior knowledge)
Contact:
Jacqui Thorp, Training & Capacity Building Administrator, University of Southampton
Tel: 02380594069 Email: jmh6@soton.ac.uk
Map:
View in Google Maps (W1B 1AD)
Venue:
Royal Institute of British Architects (RIBA), 66 Portland Place, London
Description:
Declining support for the main parties, allied with the rise of UKIP and the aftermath of the Scottish Independence Referendum mean that the 2015 General Election promises to be one of the most difficult to predict for many years. In addition to changes in the political landscape, the ways in which political scientists and pollsters seek to understand and predict electoral preferences have also undergone considerable transformation. This one day event, jointly organised by the ESRC funded National Centre for Research Methods (NCRM) and the British Election Study (BES), and sponsored by the British Polling Council, brings together leading scholars of electoral behaviour to consider, not just the likely outcome in 2015 but what will be the key factors to decide how the key players will fare.
Programme
11.00 Welcome and Introduction
11.15 Key Issues for the 2015 General Election, John Curtice, University of Strathclyde
11.45 The Timeline of Elections: a Comparative Perspective, Chris Wlezien, University of Texas at Austin
12.15 A model for forecasting seat shares at the 2015 General Election, Ben Lauderdale, London School of Economics
13.00 Lunch
13.30 Predicting Seat Totals from Exit Polls, Jouni Kuha, London School of Economics
14.00 The British Election Study 2015 General Election Constituency Forecast, Jon Mellon and Ed Fieldhouse, University of Manchester
14.30 The Dynamics of the Scottish Referendum Vote: Evidence from the Micro-level Matt Lebo Stony, Brook University NY
15.00 Tea/Coffee
15.30 Party Leadership and Vote Switching, Geoff Evans, University of Oxford
16.00 Polling and Predicting from the Scottish Referendum to the General Election, Nick Moon, GfK NOP
16.30 Discussion and concluding Remarks Peter Kellner, YouGov
Cost:
This event is free to attend but please register by following the link below
Website and registration:
Region:
Greater London
Keywords:
Survey Research
Related publications and presentations: