Training and Events
Subjective Expectations: Measurement and Analysis - Online
|NCRM, University of Southampton|
Professor Adeline Delavande and Professor Emilia Del Bono
09/03/2021 - 10/03/2021
Online run by University of Southampton
View in Google Maps (SO17 1BJ)
When making decisions under uncertainty, economists typically assume that individuals form probabilistic expectations for unknown quantities and maximize expected utility. Probabilistic measurement of expectations in surveys and experimental settings has become a very active area of economic research. The online course (which will be taught over two mornings) will introduce you to recent developments in the measurement and use of data on subjective expectations.
The one day course (taught over two mornings) will cover different methods for the elicitation of subjective expectations through probabilistic questions in surveys or experimental settings, using examples drawn from recent work in this area. The course discusses the different methods used for eliciting such information in both high and low income-countries contexts, the key methodological issues involved, and the open research questions. Several hands-on exercises will be proposed, where students could explore different ways of collecting the data through standard survey software, such as Qualtrics.
The second part of the course will focus on the value of subjective expectations data in the analysis of economic behaviour. Here we will show the way in which expectation data can be used in choice models to understand economic behaviour. Several examples will be discussed from the recent literature in economics, focusing on educational choices and choice related to risky behaviours.
The course covers:
By the end of the course participants will:
This course is aimed at PhD students, researchers and analysts interested in understanding recent developments in the collection and use of data on subjective expectations. Researchers who design surveys might be particularly interested in the different ways in which subjective expectations can be measured.
Some prior knowledge of discrete choice models is advisable. The course will make use of Qualtrics, no prior knowledge of this software is required.
Armantier, Olivier and Bruine de Bruin, Wändi and Potter, Simon and van der Klaauw, H. Wilbert and Topa, Giorgio and Zafar, Basit, 2013 “Measuring Inflation Expectations”, Annual Review of Economics, 5, 273-301
Delavande, Adeline, 2011: “Measuring Subjective Expectations in Developing Countries: A Critical Review and New Evidence” with Xavier Gine and David McKenzie, Journal of Development Economics, 94, 151–163
Manski, Charles, 2004: “Measuring Expectations”. Econometrica, 72, 1329–1376
Intermediate (some prior knowledge)
The fee per teaching day is:
Website and registration
Regression Methods, Survey and Questionnaire Design, Econometrics , Research Design , Choice Models
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