Session: Can We Trust the Polls? Reflections on the 2015 Election Poll Miss

Time: Wednesday 6th July, 11:15 - 12:45


Professor Patrick Sturgis (University of Southampton)

Abstract Details

The pre-election polls significantly under-estimated the size of the Conservative lead over Labour at the 2015 General Election, with nearly all the final polls calling the ‘horse race’ as a dead heat. The failure to predict the Conservative majority has led many commentators to question the value and robustness of polling methodology, with some even calling for polls to be banned in the final weeks preceding an election.

In this session members of the inquiry team set out to establish what went wrong with the polls and will discuss the causes and consequences of the 2015 polling miss. They will also assess the performance of the polls in the EU referendum.

Presentation downloads

Presenter: Patrick Sturgis

Can we trust the polls

The level of the session is: Accessible


Professor Patrick Sturgis (University of Southampton)

Mr Nick Moon (GfK)

Dr Joel Williams (TNS-BMRB)

Professor Jouni Kuha (LSE)

Professor Will Jennings (University of Southampton)