Opinion Polling in the EU Referendum: Challenges and Lessons

Date:

08/12/2016

Organised by:

NCRM, BPC and MRC

Presenter:

Chair: Sharon Witherspoon MBE (Academy of Social Sciences)

Level:

Entry (no or almost no prior knowledge)

Contact:

Penny White
Research Coordinator
National Centre for Research Methods
Email: p.c.white@southampton.ac.uk
Tel: 02380584539

Map:

View in Google Maps  (EC1Y 8LX)

Venue:

The Royal Statistical Society
12 Errol Street
London

Description:

The referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union presented the opinion polls with a formidable challenge. Support for Remain and Leave crossed party lines. Rather than a debate between left and right, opinions reflected a division between social liberals and social conservatives. Even if the polls had overcome the difficulties that had beset them in 2015 – and that appeared to be still a work in progress – there was no guarantee that methods that had been honed to estimate party support in a general election would work effectively in this seemingly very different environment.

As a result, the campaign was marked by a lively debate about polling methodology, and significant methodological experimentation and adaptation by polling companies. In the event the final polls correctly indicated that the result would be close, but for the most part, incorrectly indicated that Remain would be the most likely winner. With speakers from the polling companies and members of the BPC/MRS inquiry into the performance of the polls in the 2015 election, this seminar features presentations of how the polling companies set about their task and independent evaluations of the methodology that they used. Its aim is to identify the key lessons to be learned from the referendum for the future of opinion polling.

Agenda

13.00              Registration opens

13.30              Welcome from Jane Frost (Market Research Society)

13.35              Introduction from the Chair: Sharon Witherspoon MBE (Academy of Social Sciences)

13.40              Polling in the EU Referendum: an overview, John Curtice (British Polling Council & University of Strathclyde)

14.05              The challenges of polling by phone in the EU Referendum, Ben Page (Ipsos-MORI)

14.20              The challenges of polling via the internet in the EU Referendum, Adam Drummond (Opinium)

14.35              Discussion and Q&A

15.00              Tea & Coffee

15.20              Sampling and mode of interview, Patrick Sturgis (NCRM, University of Southampton

15.45              Treatment of don’t knows and turnout weighting, Stephen Fisher (University of Oxford)

16.10              The effect of methodological adjustments during the campaign, Will Jennings (University of Southampton)

16.35              Discussion and Q&A

17.00              Close

Cost:

Free of charge but registration is required.

Website and registration:

Region:

Greater London

Keywords:

Participant Recruitment, Survey and Questionnaire Design, Qualitative Interviewing, Polling

Related publications and presentations:

Participant Recruitment
Survey and Questionnaire Design
Qualitative Interviewing

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