CMIST Short Course :: Forecasting Methods and Models
Date:
10/12/2014
Organised by:
University of Manchester
Presenter:
Dr William Cook
Level:
Intermediate (some prior knowledge)
Contact:
Jon Davis
cmist-courses@manchester.ac.uk
Map:
View in Google Maps (M13 9PL)
Venue:
The Cathie Marsh Institute for Social Research
School of Social Sciences
Humanities Bridgeford St Building
University of Manchester
Manchester
Description:
Outline
The course aims to cover the commonly used techniques to forecast demand in public services and in business. The emphasis of this course is on the practical application of forecasting techniques rather than on theoretical content. Alongside quantitative techniques we will also cover the more qualitative and judgement based aspects of forecasting.
Objectives
By the end of the course participants will be able to:
- Build a model that forecasts demand based on demographic drivers.
- Construct a time series model that decomposes the forecast into cyclical, seasonal and short term factors.
- Develop a predictive regression model that allows for the identification of influential factors that drive demand.
- Understand the quantitative and qualitative techniques to develop future scenarios and assumptions
- Report forecast findings, recognising the strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting approaches, the sensitivity of forecasts to assumptions and the metrics that indicate the accuracy of a forecast.
Prerequisites
Basic knowledge of statistics (including simple regression) is preferable. Experience of using MS Excel at a basic level is essential.
Cost:
£195 (£140 for those from educational and charitable institutions). The Cathie Marsh Institute (CMIST) offers 5 free places to research staff and students within the Faculty of Humanities at The University of Manchester and the North West Doctoral Training Centre.
Website and registration:
http://www.cmist.manchester.ac.uk/study/courses/short/booking/
Region:
North West
Keywords:
Mixed Methods, Qualitative Data Handling and Data Analysis
Related publications and presentations:
Mixed Methods
Qualitative Data Handling and Data Analysis