BPC/MRS Inquiry into the Performance of the Opinion Polls at the 2015 General Election
Terms of Reference
- To assess the accuracy of the published opinion polls (both national and sub-national) at the 2015 general election.
- To evaluate whether any inaccuracies identified might be part of a pattern evident at previous elections.
- To investigate the causes of any inaccuracies that are identified. Potential causes to be considered will include (but not necessarily be limited to): the possible impact of late changes in vote preferences, sampling methods, interview mode, weighting and filtering, population coverage, item refusal, differential availability and willingness to participate, question order and wording.
- To assess whether the analysis or reporting of polls was influenced by a reluctance to be out of line with the published figures of other polls.
- To consult and seek relevant evidence from all appropriate stakeholders, including but not exclusively, polling organisations that are members of the BPC.
- To assess whether adequate information was provided and communicated to interested commentators and the public about how polls were conducted and what their results meant.
- To make, as it sees fit, recommendations for improving how opinion polls are conducted and published in future.
- To make recommendations, if necessary, for changing the rules and obligations of BPC membership.
- To submit a report to the BPC and MRS by 1 March 2016, with a view to its publication by BPC and MRS as soon as possible thereafter.