Can we trust the 2017 election polls?

26 May 2017, The British Academy, Carlton Terrace, London, SW1Y 5AH
Chair: Sharon Witherspoon, Academy of Social Sciences

The 2015 General Election was the most significant polling error in the UK since the annus horribilis of the industry in1992. The collective failure of the 2015 polls prompted the British Polling Council and Market Research Society to launch an Inquiry into its underlying causes (Sturgis et al, 2016). Allied with other recent high profile polling misses, including the EU Referendum, public confidence in the accuracy of the polls is at a historically how ebb. This half-day symposium considered how the polling industry has responded to the recommendations of the Polling Inquiry, assessed the current state of the polling evidence, and evaluated the likelihood of a second successive general election polling miss occurring on June 8th.

Programme

Are we heading for another polling miss?
Patrick Sturgis, University of Southampton

How has polling changed since 2015
John Curtice, University of Strathclyde

Political context of the 2017 election: potential challenges
Jane Green, University of Manchester

Assessment of the current state of the opinion polls
Will Jennings, University of Southampton

ICM’s approach to polling the 2017 election
Martin Boon, ICM

YouGov’s approach to polling the 2017 election
Joe Twyman, YouGov